What Texas exports earn, and why it sets the payback
No Texas law makes anyone pay full price for the solar power you send to the grid. Our two cases use the same system and the same home. Only the value of exported power changes. Both assume 40% of the power is used at home as it is made.
Pedernales Electric Cooperative 7.1921¢, capped
- Power you use as it is made saves 10.9134¢, PEC’s variable price from October 1, 2026.
- Power you send out earns 7.1921¢, but the credit can only pay the 6.59¢ base power charge on power you buy.
- Credit you cannot use by December 31 expires.
Exports earn nothing 0¢
- Power you use as it is made saves the same 10.9134¢.
- Power you send out earns no credit at all.
- A stress case, not a PEC rule: a plan with no buyback, or a buyback that ends at renewal.
Typical 9.29 kW system, $23,875 cash, 13,266 kWh a year
| Case and export rule | Year-one savings | After upkeep | Simple payback |
| Full-credit case: retail plan crediting every kWh 1:1 at the 15.96¢ Texas average | $2,117 | $1,838 | 13.0 years |
| Pedernales Electric Cooperative, 7.1921¢ credit capped at the base power charge | $1,024 | $745 | 32.0 years |
| Same PEC home, exports earn nothing (stress case) | $579 | $300 | 79.5 years |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Only the full-credit case earns back the cash price within 25 years, and we show all three as they are. Most buyback plans pay less than 1:1, so check your own plan’s export rate. A Texas system pays back faster when more of its power is used at home, when a delivery-company rebate lowers the price, or when your plan pays more for exports.
How we calculated this
- Output: 9.29 kW × 1,428 kWh per kW = 13,266 kWh a year. 40% used at home is 5,306 kWh; 60% sent out is 7,960 kWh.
- Home use: 5,306 kWh × 10.9134¢ = $579.
- Pedernales credit: 7,960 kWh × 7.1921¢ would be $572, but the home buys about 6,754 kWh a year and pays 6.59¢ base power on them, so only $445 of credit can be used. That is about 5.59¢ for each kWh sent out.
- The home is assumed to use 12,060 kWh a year, so the panels make 110% of its use.
- Upkeep: $30 per kW a year, $278.70, including an inverter reserve. PEC’s $32.50 monthly charge is left out because homes without solar pay it too.
- Payback: $23,875 ÷ (savings − upkeep). No rebate, financing, rate changes or panel aging.
- Full-credit case: 13,266 kWh × 15.96¢ = $2,117, minus $278.70 upkeep = $1,838 a year; $23,875 ÷ $1,838 = 13.0 years. It assumes a plan that credits every exported kWh at the full average price, which few plans do, and the 15.96¢ average includes fixed charges, so it is an upper bound.
- We did not model Austin Energy or CPS Energy. Use your own plan’s rate.
Run your own Texas numbers